The True State of the Farm Economy

by Mary Rose

On January 23^rd and 24^th, 2026, I attended my third straight Winter Leadership Experience (WLE). This conference is hosted by the Ohio Farm Bureau Federation (OFBF) in varying locations around the state each year. Although the national average age of farmers is almost 60 years old, many of the attendees at WLE are the younger faces of agriculture. WLE is intended for the younger generation of producers through the Young Ag Professionals program, also known as YAP. 

WLE offers YAP members, who are ages 18 to 35, the chance to network and gain more insight about the career they love. Saturdays of the conference are filled with breakout sessions about leadership and agriculture. One of the workshops I attended was the Farm Policy Update, led by American Farm Bureau economist Faith Parum. Her talk had enough interest that extra chairs were needed. 

A High Hill to Climb 

Parum began her presentation by highlighting the current farm economy. She discussed the income and expenses of American farmers. The chart (Figure 1) with the most recent data was from September of 2025, which was before President Trump announced in December 2025 that he would give farmers a $12 billion aid package. Of the over $600 billion expected income, $40.5 billion comes from existing government payments. Some of those payments include farm subsidies from the Farm Bill and One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which Trump signed in 2025. However, there is a bright spot to see the projected net farm income to be $180 billion, which is a 40.7% increase from 2024 figures. 

Figure 1

If you follow the agricultural markets, you know that grain markets have been low for quite some time. Meanwhile, the livestock markets have been having a high, most notably in the cattle sector, where some calves are going for about $2,000. Unfortunately for those growing row crops, they can’t control the markets. Grain and livestock prices, like the stock market, are changing constantly. Parum showed a chart showing a stark difference between crop cash and livestock cash receipts (Figure 2). Livestock cash receipts have been on the rise since 2023, while crop cash receipts hit a peak in 2022 and have been in decline ever since.

Figure 2

All of that, while production expenses and input costs continue to rise. Farmers and ranchers have been feeling the effects of inflation, too. For production expenses (Figure 3), 2025 saw a record high for marketing, taxes, maintenance, interest, livestock and poultry, and a large discussion of the ag industry, labor. Parum shared that a big part of the labor challenge is in specialty crops and in livestock. But input costs (Figure 4) are still on the rise, now for the third straight year. The highest of which comes from rice. The rising costs and the harsh state of the grain market, among other factors such as weather, have caused consistent losses for row crop farmers for four years (Figure 5). The biggest loss is coming from cotton. 

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Reinforcements 

While livestock markets are thriving, the ag industry needs some assistance to help farmers keep growing the food on our tables and clothes on our backs. This is where the government steps in. The first Farm Bill was introduced in the 1930s during the Dust Bowl to help farmers who were struggling. Farmers have faced more periods of struggle since that time, such as the 1980s Farm Crisis. Some people are comparing the current state of agriculture to the 1980s. In 2025, as previously mentioned, Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), separating some pieces from the 2018 Farm Bill —which still has not been renewed— such as farm subsidies. 

Parum explained what changes OBBBA has brought to agriculture. The most notable changes come from crop reference prices (Figure 6) and insurance coverage (Figure 7). Crop reference prices are baseline prices for crops, which are set by the government. Historically, they were included in the Farm Bill but are now included in OBBBA. All major crop commodities have increased, and Parum shared that these prices will be adjusted each year based on inflation. Crop insurance, which helps to cover some losses associated with weather and other factors, is also seeing an increase in coverage. 

Figure 6

Figure 7

Aside from OBBBA is part of Trump’s promise of $12 billion for farmers, which should be rolling out by February 28^th, 2026. This is called the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, which will consist of $11 billion. Both row crops and states (Figure 8) will be receiving different amounts of this money. For example, rice will be seeing the most assistance dollars per acre at $132.89. Cotton will receive the second-highest amount at $117.35/acre. Some of the Midwest’s most common crops, corn, wheat, and soybeans, will be seeing $44.36/acre, $39.35/acre, and $30.88/acre, respectively. Meanwhile, states as a whole will have money distributed by the millions. Only one state, Texas, will receive over $1 billion in relief. As for the Heartland, they will be seeing their fair share as well. Of Midwest states, Michigan will receive the lowest amount of money at $184 million. Ohio will get $318 million. Iowa, known for their high corn production, will receive the most relief in the Midwest region with aid of $893 million dollars and the second-highest aid in the country.  

Figure 8

While rice will be seeing the most per acre, corn is getting the majority of the funds. Corn, also known as maize, means the most popular crop of a country. So, it makes sense that an abundance of agricultural crop land in the United States that is designated to corn would get the most money. 

Unfortunately, the projections are showing that even with the Bridge Assistance Program, losses will remain in row crop farming. However, there is some security with the OBBBA regarding crop reference prices and crop insurance. At least for now. The changes borrowed from what was once the 2018 Farm Bill are good until 2034. 

Losing Ground 

Even with government band-aids, sometimes it just isn’t enough. Farming can be a tough business model. So much so, that since 1950, both the number of farming operations and acres farmed have been in decline. In 75 years, the number of farm operations in the United States has decreased by 3.75 million, or 66.4%. And while many farms have since increased in acreage from the 1950s, 323 million acres of agricultural land have been lost. That is almost enough to be the size of Texas. Twice. 

Farms are still closing their barn doors and seeing the money go dry. In 2024, 71 Midwest farms filed for Chapter 12 bankruptcy, the most of any region. Chapter 12 bankruptcy is a farmer and fisherman-specific classification. During that time, a total of 216 operations across the United States filed for bankruptcy. 

Where Do We Go from Here? 

This reality is a hard truth. But farmers and ranchers across the country are living with this daily. It is these hard truths that are the purpose behind organizations like American Farm Bureau. They lobby to government officials for policy reforms that benefit agriculture at the national level and the state level through their state and county Farm Bureaus.  

At the end of Parum’s talk, someone asked what farmers can do. She said to go to your state and national representatives. “They hear from us 40 hours a week,” she said of Farm Bureau lobbyists. “They would love to hear from you.” 

Share your story. Farm Bureau prides itself on the members being the driver for policy change. Even with the great work they’ve already done and continue to do, your voice can be heard, too. You don’t have to put a plow in the ground or feed livestock in subzero temperatures to help agriculture. Where we go from here is raising our voices.

To find out more information about the American Farm Bureau, click here. To learn more about Ohio Farm Bureau, click here.

All figures used in this article are courtesy of Faith Parum and American Farm Bureau.